After the bloodless revolution in the Delhi elections by the common man it is clear that 2014 will be an interesting tussle between the entrenched politics and the new age politics as provided by brand "aam admi'.
If no govt is formed in Delhi then the people of this country will be robbed of an opportunity to judge the performance of the AAP. In my opinion, post these assembly results it is clear that there is a clear anti-congress wave sweeping the nation. Hence the projected seats for Lok sabha 2014 are as follows:
OPTION 1:
If there is no govt formation in Delhi the following may be the results in elections 2014
NDA - 220+
UPA - 140+
AAP - 40+
Third front - 134-
OPTION 2:
In the case of a formation of a govt in Delhi the following may well be the result
NDA - 255+
AAP - 80+
UPA - 80-
third front - 119-
many small fringe upa members will align with the BJP or prefer to be independent - hence the third front will swelled by these parties deserting the UPA.
Now the scenario will be changed dramatically if the following were to happen:
1. Assuming option 2 - AAP brings down the BJP govt in delhi - the BJP will go to the elections saying - "see what a fractuous mandate does" - in this case the NDA will get 260+ and the UPA reverts back to 140+ and the AAP falls to 15+
2. AAP gives support to the Delhi govt based on issues and hence is there as the conscience of the common man - the govt functions in a healthy manner - the above option 2 may well be surpassed by both the BJP and the AAP
3. no govt is formed then option 1 above will come about and the country can ill afford a minority govt or horse trading now as that will totally vitiate the atmosphere.
So it boils down to the simple fact that the AAP goes to the BJP and tells them to form the Delhi govt promising them a hard time on all issues in the assembly BUT in a transparent manner in keeping with their raison d'etre and we could indeed be celebrating another revolution after the independence movement - the revolution of freedom from corruption.
NOTE For stock market participants:
in the immediate term, company results will rein in the exuberance and the timeline of tapering by the US Fed will also pull down the markets after todays euphoria.
In case of option 1 in case Modi does become the PM, we may look at a nifty index of 8000 by the end of their term.
However in case of option 2 , we can easily look at a nifty index in excess of 10000 by the end of their term with a return of the same dipensation coming back to power being priced in.
In the case neither of the above happens and by a miracle the third front or the congress form the government all bets are off and we may easily look at an index which will be well and truly buried.
If no govt is formed in Delhi then the people of this country will be robbed of an opportunity to judge the performance of the AAP. In my opinion, post these assembly results it is clear that there is a clear anti-congress wave sweeping the nation. Hence the projected seats for Lok sabha 2014 are as follows:
OPTION 1:
If there is no govt formation in Delhi the following may be the results in elections 2014
NDA - 220+
UPA - 140+
AAP - 40+
Third front - 134-
OPTION 2:
In the case of a formation of a govt in Delhi the following may well be the result
NDA - 255+
AAP - 80+
UPA - 80-
third front - 119-
many small fringe upa members will align with the BJP or prefer to be independent - hence the third front will swelled by these parties deserting the UPA.
Now the scenario will be changed dramatically if the following were to happen:
1. Assuming option 2 - AAP brings down the BJP govt in delhi - the BJP will go to the elections saying - "see what a fractuous mandate does" - in this case the NDA will get 260+ and the UPA reverts back to 140+ and the AAP falls to 15+
2. AAP gives support to the Delhi govt based on issues and hence is there as the conscience of the common man - the govt functions in a healthy manner - the above option 2 may well be surpassed by both the BJP and the AAP
3. no govt is formed then option 1 above will come about and the country can ill afford a minority govt or horse trading now as that will totally vitiate the atmosphere.
So it boils down to the simple fact that the AAP goes to the BJP and tells them to form the Delhi govt promising them a hard time on all issues in the assembly BUT in a transparent manner in keeping with their raison d'etre and we could indeed be celebrating another revolution after the independence movement - the revolution of freedom from corruption.
NOTE For stock market participants:
in the immediate term, company results will rein in the exuberance and the timeline of tapering by the US Fed will also pull down the markets after todays euphoria.
In case of option 1 in case Modi does become the PM, we may look at a nifty index of 8000 by the end of their term.
However in case of option 2 , we can easily look at a nifty index in excess of 10000 by the end of their term with a return of the same dipensation coming back to power being priced in.
In the case neither of the above happens and by a miracle the third front or the congress form the government all bets are off and we may easily look at an index which will be well and truly buried.
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