Tuesday, May 11, 2010

Has Mukesh been too smart here?

As the final chapters in the Mother of all brother rivalries is being written - the first para was on predictable lines. The money, muscle and connection power of the elder brother has won the day.. OR HAS IT??

The only way that RIL could deny the windfall gains to the ADAG was if the superiority of the Govt wrt the allocation and pricing is acknowledged. This was the cornerstone on which the fight was played out and the hastily convened EGom gave a rate which would reverse the windfall from ADAG to RIL. Now that the coveted status has been achieved - let us look at the implications..

RIL can never ever participate in any tender for supply of Gas as it is the government which who is the sole owner of the Gas (Based on the supreme court ruling) - That means that the NTPC tender and other such tenders are null and void just as the RNRL contract has been found incorrect by the SC. (Just to rephrase - the SC has held that the Government has the power to fix the price and also to whom the Gas will be allocated - But the corrolory that all this was managed to only deny RNRL its windfall gains is true too.)

This will result in the biggest ripoff of all times!! The combined sales to RNRL and NTPC alone would result in an additional income of some 50-60000 crore Rupees to RIL, this will of course come from the pocket of electricity consumers!! If the Government were to allow the higher price and give a subsidy for the same - this would be another PIL in the making - that money is being printed by the Govt to pay into the private coffers of a company just so that the politicians in the pay leash of the corporate can justify their existence!! This would be in contravention of all accepted norms and mores as the lower rate quoted to NTPC was the result of a Tender and any revision based on some corrupted EGom (setup at the instigation of RIL) is the most brazen form of corruption one is witnessing today!!

So the last few paras of the brothers saga will be interesting as these will depend on the road the Government takes now. They can easily ratify the contracted rates and put to rest the controversy once and for all wrt to RNRL and NTPC or THEY can choose to sully their hands furthur by revising the rates and going down the slippery slopes of corruption..wouldnt be surprised if these rates are increased before elections.

Retiring - the mirage..

Another day Another BAILOUT.

The latest is the close to a Trillion Dollar bailout of Greece. When will this madness end and when will this mortgaging of the future of kids end?

Do we as "common people" have a say in the indiscriminate and competitive "bailout" spending being practiced by our governments? In India if it is not some "stimulus package" it is some "subsidy" or some pay commission which leads to inflation.

This only means that the dream of retiring "early" is nothing more than that. All those who have been fiscally responsible in their individual lives, been disciplined in their spending are now left with assets rendered worthless by the ravages of inflation will have to come out of retirement to work again!!

This will lead to a disruption in society leading to a new social order as more people get frustrated with their lot and start blaming the system for the mess their orderly lives have been made into. The next revolution is not far off - its just a question of when and in which country.

The prime candidate for this upheaval will be where the quality of living sees the maximum drop - the irony in all this is - it is this fear which has prompted the BAILOUT in the First place!!

Talk about economic experts and Vested interests!!