Komalavalli may now rest in peace

With her passing the real J Jayalalitha can now stand up
Now that she is free from the bonds that she allowed to bind her
Now that she is one of the beyond, she can rest
Now that she is the most loved and derided person in TN politics
Her legacy in a strongly patriarchal society is something future women in politics can look up to for strength
Rest in peace for you have earned it.

3 full terms as CM and at the beginning of the fourth she has no equal in TN politics. In charisma only her mentor MGR was greater and he even won an election lying in an hospital in the US!!

Her 14+years as CM is only surpassed by M Karunanidhi with his 19years which at the end of her current term would have been eclipsed!

Her very heartfelt interview with simi garewal can be seen here
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DzqLo_1SPZg  (part 1)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cf2bU9xD-3E  (part 2)

her wiki is here at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jayalalithaa

The interview says it all. Contrast this interview with the one with Karan thapar where she had walk out and you will get a glimpse as to the person she was.

May her much maligned and tortured soul rest for she has earned it.

TATA to good governance - Its a Mistry why ?

Good governance and Companies are mutually exclusive events (with a very few exceptions).

All companies promoters only look at what they can take out of the company at the cost of the investor or the lender - which is normally the banks or investors too greedy for their own good who chase junk bonds.

But the real free money is in equity and this is where reputation plays a very important role. Just as in most crime thrillers, its one who has earned ones trust who betrays it and the entire story of how the wrong is righted is scripted, unfortunately in the murky world of corporate finance there is no retribution as long as the regulators, be it the MCA or the SEBI does not do its homework.

For the TATA companies if one were to create an index of their company shares alone, the returns would have fared worse than gold if you exclude TCS and with TCS it just about beats gold - and thats not something to crow about! The systematic way in which TATA companies were used to buy shares in group companies and then these shares were sold to TATASONS when the markets were down ad nauseum till SEBI finally made inter promoter share transfers public is revolting to say the least! now these shares just sit on the group company balance sheets with huge borrowings at the cost of the public shareholder and the voting rights on these shares are exercised by TATASONS. I say why not me? Just as say, TATASONS being a shareholder can vote on the shares held by TATAMOTORS in TATASTEEL, why cant i do it as a shareholder?

That SEBI/ MCA have not forced these shares to be voted upon by a group of Institutions like LIC/any shareholder other than promoter group members picked in random etc is beyond me.

What SEBI/ MCA can do?
get all cross holding investments sold at current market prices in all group companies of single promoters. the monies so realised to be only used to repay debt in the companies books - no dividend is to be paid out.

all royaties for brand/name use are to be stopped - if the holding company wants they can always delink the name and do business - the business will do just as well or as badly!!

Also all investment companies or holding companies need to offer a buyout of minority shareholders once every 2 years. the price can be used as a counter offer by any minority shareholder to buyout the promoters at the price quoted by them as long as he can offer a better price to the remaining shareholders. This will eliminate the obsecene 30-50% discounts on holding/ investment companies and at the same time work as a stick for promoters to decide which companies they need to keep in their group and the ones they need to let go, as they work overtime to make their holding/ investment companies private to avoid this policy.

My investment philosophy has always been guided on how much the management of a company to willing to kill the hen(company) that lays the golden egg(profits). the lesser the inclination the higher the investment quotient. also as the underlying theme is of stealing from the public when there is a fight in Genx the shareholders can benefit as in the case of reliance when the brothers fought and the resulting split gave a 250% return to the shareholders of RIL. neither RIL nor the other group companies are anywhere near their lifetime highs when the market is threatening to make new highs.

Solution to the TATASONS-Mistry spat.

Transfer all group holding shares held from group companies to the Balance sheet of TATASONS along with an equivalent amount of debt from these companies and after that the TATA's and the PALLONJI's can split the pie depending on the fresh capital they can introduce into TATASONS to pay off the huge debt that would have been transferred in. In the event of tussle over any particular company - the more the merrier for the minority shareholders - the one who can bid more will get the same!! this is a win win for the long suffering shareholders though i dont know who amongst the TATA's and PALLONJI's is the winner. That would be the Mistry in all this!!

Fight the good fight - Post demonetisation action

Now that demonetisation is underway (a long way before we call it done and dusted) what are the subsequent logical steps that the government should take? Well lets look at some of them and see if the same or some even better are in store for the much harrassed common man.

1. Fake currency: The logic should be that if it passes human test, then it is legal tender. If a currency has to he held under some scanner or other such implement then this scourge is never going to go away and the public will continue to be harasssed as fake currency notes are destroyed when you go to deposit in the bank. A major reason for people to keep cash as cash and not go to the bank.

2. RFID: This was a rumour on the launch of the new notes. It would have been useful if this tech or something similar had been incorporated which allows for individual tracking of currencies - this is the only way to stop the hoarding of black money.

3. Corruption: Make all application and disposal of application process online. In fact the person disposing off the application for say the state of TN would be sitting in delhi, and for delhi he would be sitting in jharkhand. This way physical contact can be eliminated and everything gets online and has to follow the queue. Also for the number of transactions that a person does will be the benchmark for the salary for every individual - this will ensure that everyone works. For eg if one person on the same job does 100 transactions in a  month and another does only 75 transactions - the salary of the other person will be only 75% for that month and so on. The control transaction guy will be any unemployed youth who will be employed by turn in each month and the transactions that he does will be the minimum - I am sure if such a system is employed refinements on the same will keep the government employees busy!! (The BPO industry might implement this even before the govt!!)

4. Taxation: With GST and the FM's hint that he is looking at 25% as the peak rate of income tax, one shouldn't be surprised if the tax rate is reduced to 25% come the budget in feb'17. I feel an even bigger cut or substantial increase in the slab rates could be looked forward to.

5. Banking fees: It is one of the mysteries of the universe why the governments allow banks to charge a customer for NOT maintaining a minimum balance. Similarly the prepayment penalty is a joke when there are such high level of delinquencies. Also when you are looking at a cashless society one is charged for executing NEFT/ RTGS transactions. A complete review of the charges by banks and removal of the obvious silly ones and rationalisation of the others will go a long way in incentivising the people in adopting banking for most if not all of their transaction needs.

6. government revenue: The first law should be that all government revenue collection should be online. If it is not online it is not due - this is the first step to have been done even before demonetisation - we still have to carry DD's for many government activities!!

7. Land dematerialisation: the next BIG strike on corruption is dematerialisation of land records (not just digitalisation). With dematerialisation i estimate that 12-18% of land will have benamis and hence will fall in to the hand of the govt. 30-35% will end up in the courts. That will leave 47-58 percent which will be free from all problems/ issues and hence can be transacted online (compulsorily). The 12-18% of benami land once auctioned will also lead to the total pool of land records free from all encumberances and hence as the cost of compliance comes down the real estate sector will take off - this will add a permanent 2-3% to the GDP for the next 12-15years before we have the next collapse in the real estate market.

8. Subsidy: The government should stop all subsidies in urban centres - this is so as one of the stated objectives of the government is to keep people from leaving the villages and migrating to the cities. If the disincentive of zero subsidy stares the people in their faces they might think twice before they migrate. Also all subsidies are to be targetted with certain criteria - if the anticipated changes are not seen then the same is to be better targetted or to be closed.

9. government debt: A time table (very flexible table at that) is to be tabled each year with the budget which will lay out the roadmap for repayment of all outstanding government debt. All future debt issues to have a time bound repayment - the FRBM to be accordingly amended to include this clause.

10. Minimum Govt maximum Governance: ultimately the goal of the government should be to be present only in the defence, home security, taxation, RBI. The rest should be only policy / law mandates but they are to be financed and managed by a committee of ministers selected from the states - for example in education the govt can only set the minimum syllabus and the standards to be followed - the rest of the decision as to how to fund etc should be at the local corporation/ panchayat level - the devolution of funding will be on L1 basis.

11. WPI/ CPI - inflation targetting is a very important job of government and as such one measure of inflation is a misnomer - there should be one for subsidy free urban areas and one for subsidised non-urban areas. This way the real costs that matter will be in the respective baskets and better policy targetting can be done by the government - hence saving it budget monies.

leaving you all with another gem from the timeless series:

Bernard: But surely the citizens of a democracy have a right to know.

Sir Humphrey Appleby: No. They have a right to be ignorant. Knowledge only means complicity in guilt; ignorance has a certain dignity.

I only hope that with full knowledge we also have our dignity at the end of the day because what is being witnessed today in front of the banks and ATM is anything but.

Apocalypse now - Demonetisation execution backlash

India is no longer the same from 820pm on the 8th of November, 2016, when the government withdrew high denomination notes of INR500 and INR1000 as legal tender. following up on the earlier blog on this we now look at the execution part of the decision.

It is hailed as a bold move and to quote Humphery on this :

[How to guide ministers to making the right decisions]

Sir Humphrey: If you want to be really sure that the Minister doesn't accept it, you must say the decision is "courageous".

Bernard: And that's worse than "controversial"?

Sir Humphrey: Oh, yes! "Controversial" only means "this will lose you votes". "Courageous" means "this will lose you the election"!

So as we watch the long queues, one is left with the feeling that perhaps this was more a courageous decision than a bold one!! As mentioned in the earlier blog on this subject, 2019 will tell us if Modi and BjP got this right or not. whether the people will reward them for delivering this sucker punch on those who deal in and hoard black money OR consign them to the history books.

Now coming to what the government could have done.

1. ATM's recalibration: That INR2000 notes were being introduced, was no secret. The  government could have got banks to recalibrate ATM beforehand for their introduction by eliminating 1000 tray in the ATM's - this way ATM's would have all been up and running.

2. Replenishment of ATM's:  This is one place the govt really messed up. The army could have been used in this. ATM's are last replenished around 9-10pm - with the army this could have been a 24hr affair  thereby saving a lot of angst on the ground.

3. Bank deposits/exchange  : All gazetted government department employees should have also been pressed into service in banks in their local areas so that additional points of contact can be created. For eg for each table 30 people per hour can be cleared - assuming 150000 such officers working for 10hours, we have an extra 150000 x 30 x 10 = 4,50,00,000 transactions which would have by now cleared all the exchange problems and the crowds would have by now petered out.

4. NRI's - This is a group of people that the Government has totally ignored (or forgotten?) as they have not been given an option to convert their currencies in the indian embassies abroad or in foreign Branches of Indian Banks. This is something the government should rectify at the earliest as the amount that an individual can hold today abroad of indian currency is INR25000 (corrected - earlier noted as 5000/-) which is close to 400$ per person.

5. foreign travellers - there are umpteen foreigners who have landed in india on the week before the announcement who suddenly have no recourse to exchange their monies. For quite a lot of them it has become an unforgettable holiday - this could have been easily avoided by allowing railway gazetted officers to exchange against proof of their earlier conversion from forex to INR whatever cash they had at one go - this would have been a seamless experience instead of the confusion that one is witnessing in the streets today besides the loss of business from these customers who have only come to spend and have a good time.

6. Domestic travellers - A lot of domestic travellers have also been caught in the wrong foot especially those who have gone on business trips which entail only cash deposits for auctions of certain natural commodities -such people now cant even go back to their places nor use the existing currencies to participate in such auctions etc. The exemptions given to postal, govt services, hospitals etc have to be extended till such time, queues are normalised from the current 3/4hours to under 30 minutes at least.

Unintended consequences:
1. Poor people who have been saving all their lives and are unbanked will end up paying taxes if they have more than 2.5lacs.
2. People without proper knowledge of taxation rules like the telangana woman who committed suicide as she had 50lacs in her house from the sale of her agricultural land. As agri land is exempt from tax - this was a truly sad collateral
3. As the 2000 note does not have RFID tagging this entire process is only a one time clean up process - hence the hawala operators are only biding their time and issuing their own iou's to those who have unbanked monies with a promise to pay over the next few months. of course what cant be exchanged before 31st march 2017 is once and for all lost to the black money hoarder.

Net net, a bold move has been frittered away by some below average planning of the nitty gritties and poor on ground execution which has been the bane of independent india.

Maybe the PM would have been better served by first setting the executive in order before this decision to make the entire economy clients of the friendly neighborhood hawala operator?

you hustle, you deal, you steal from us all....

From the ACDC album in 1990, (money talks) to living within your needs as opposed to living beyond your means for your wants. This is the plague which has been ripping apart all economies the world over and ripping apart all government calculations for their budgets - the scourge of BLACK MONEY , as people find innovative ways to not pay taxes and hence generate black economy and an entire ecosystem that lives off this urge to satisfy all wants.

The moneyed and the super rich or the so called 1% has its money tucked away in overseas money havens whereas the rest are left to potter around in a cash economy ecosystem to beat the taxman.

In this scenario the demonetisation brought in by the Modi government will hit at the core of economic activity and the effect of the same will be seen only when the dec and march quarter service tax returns and TDS returns are filed.

Now for some numbers:
As of Mar'16 there were 1571 crore pieces of  500/- notes AND 633 crore pieces of 1000/- notes. they account for 24.4 percent of the total number of notes in circulation and a whopping 86.4 % of the total value (approx 16.4lakh crores ie 14.2lakh crore) of notes in circulation.
There have been 2.3crore transactions in all banks combined between the 11-13th ie 7.67lakh transactions per day or approx Rs.65000 per transaction in value terms on average.
Amount of value deposited in banks estimated at 1.5lakh crore in the first 3 days - we expect another 7% to have been exchanged - hence taking the value to 1.6lakh crore. that is an approximate 11.5% of the value up for grabs. assuming this continues it will take another 24 days to clear the total value ie only after the 10th of december one can expect the banking system to come to some level of normalcy assuming they work all weekends till then.

So what are we looking at?
1. End of fake currency at least for 8-14months

2. Increased cost of terror financing for another 8-14months

3. Government expects at least 12-15% of the currencies to not turn up ie a straight benefit on the Balance Sheet of the RBI to the tune of 2 lakh crores. Personally i expect this to be closer to .9-1lakh crore of benefit. The value in GDP terms is 1.5% in case of the Govt and in my calculations it is closer to .8% - these values are truly worth the effort. Cost of this exercise to the govt - estimated at 15000crores(.1%of GDP). Cost to the people in lost man hours etc - possibly 27days ie 7.4% of the total year ie a negative impact of 7.4% of the GDP. On the converse the attempts to bring all this money in the mainstream (methods explained below) will result in an increase of close to anywhere between 12% (pessimistic) to 25%(optimistic) to the GDP. NOW this again is significant as the net bump up to the GDP  is between 4.6%-17.6% with a corresponding prorata increase in tax collections - hence the lookout for the service tax and TDS numbers of the next 2 qtr's.

4. Real estate and gold are now dead ducks in the water for a long long time as more and more people in the shadow economy are forced to liquidate over the next few months to meet their many obligations. For eg the bookie who couldnt honour his dues for the bets made on the US elections, to the hawala operator who couldnt make the 2nd leg of the transaction, to the businessman who has loans in cash, to the real estate benami who cannot meet his obligations to his masters, to the money launderer who can no longer continue as the hawala guy is missing and so on and so forth.

5. Indian Jugaad to meet this new reality.
The PM dropped the bombshell of demonetisation at approx 820pm on the 8th of November, by 9pm Biyani of Future retail had sent an SMS telling that his shop will be open till midnight for all those who wish to buy their daily provisions. A visit yesterday showed that a lot of their stocks was depleted and the staff confirmed that one months sale was booked in those 3 hours and since then there has been a relative quiet as 2/3rd of the business was in cash sales - only 1/3rd were card users like me. So the first jugaad was to keep shops open till midnight and in case of jewellers etc they kept it open till the 10th when raids across the country finally forced them to shut shop.
Second jugaad was loan melas organised by politicians and strongmen where monies to the tune of 2-3lacs was given on a interest free basis to the villagers from where the politician/ strongman hails on a pay back after 3years basis. (this is what Modi meant when he said that he would put money in people's hands taken from black money hoarders!!)
Third jugaad is splitting the money into smaller packets of 10k each and getting the same deposited into the accounts of the many jan dhan account holders for a commission ranging between 10-30% depending on how desperate one is -as jan dhan account holders have a limit of 10k per month - hence in my estimation the majority of the people queuing up at the banks are these commission agents of hawala operators. as 4k can also be exchanged each jan dhan holder so identified is clearing out 14k at a time for the operator who get back approx 12k on an average - this is not bad as the first hawala operator to be back in business can charge an obscene commission from the others.
Fourth jugaad is the advance payment of salaries in many companies - or just cash payments and marking the staff as absent for the said days.
Fifth jugaad is investing in high value assets and non-perishable stock items BUT this was only possible in the first 24-48 hours - totally ended after the recent raids.
Sixth jugaad is people like my LPG supplier who billed me on the night of the 8th and shows delivery made on the 11th but is yet to physically deliver the gas!! obviously the poor fellow is trying to get as much of his high denom notes into the bank as possible as he is in the list of exempted services - just like airlines and trains which saw 1400% increase in transactions wherein people are buying tickets for subsequent cancellation - just that airlines have announced that tickets bought with old currency are not refundable!!
There are many more jugaads in process as the people scramble to protect/ save as much as possible of their ill gotten wealth.

So taking all this into account, assuming that 40% of the economy is unaccounted and 60% of this is converted by various jugaad methods we arrive at 24% - assuming that half of this remains in the cash economy, I estimate that 12% will add to the GDP on a net net basis. This calculation to some extent also matches with the calculations in point 3 above.

Political impact:
My first and continuing assessment is that I hope that Modi has not damaged his chances at a 2019 reelection by this move -  that would be more disastrous to the overall Indian renaissance which Modi has embarked upon. of course he can undo this damage by reducing taxes furthur as promised already to 25% from 30%. The last time tax rates were reduced was in '97-98 - so 19years later in the '17-18 fiscal he can get some brownie points after a rather brutal attack on the entire economy in the search for Black money.

Share market:
Going forward we expect interest rates to go down furthur - not very good for retirees as they will get even less going forward forcing some of them to look for employment
Bonds will go up furthur so their bull run continues till maybe end of 2018
Stock will have only way to go and that is up after GST and this attack on Black money, SUBJECT to the new American president policy which we will have an inkling about sometime in Feb'17 - so its more of the same for stocks - wait and watch.

Hit..a miss..or a changed world?

The Surgical strikes carried out by Indian Armed forces, on terror launch pads along the LOC, in POK has all the ingredients for a quick resolution of the Kashmir issue, and the larger Pakistan Army issue in International fora.

This is the right time for Nobel peace laureate Obama to end the hypocrisy of covert American aid to Pakistan and force their army to cede permanent control of the country to its democratically chosen PM. The PM then can close the Kashmir issue by signing a peace treaty and as a sign of his goodwill withdraw troops from Siachin for starters.

If there ever a need for a Nobel effort - it is now, it is now.

Of course the predictable no-peace effort would be to escalate tensions and watch gleefully as the arms industry make a killing in the killing fields.

Marital rape - just another rape or is it?

Ever so often there is a recurring theme in Indian media when there is nothing else to report on - the discussion on "marital rape". here's an interesting article on this, which we will deconstruct and personally the author is against any law for marital rape BUT as this is a democracy and its all about choice - this can be an optional law and every woman who wants the protection of this law can say so before marriage or before she starts dating someone etc etc so that the other person will know that he is there only as a sex toy when the woman is in heat and not otherwise required. What the people who talk about "marital rape" forget is that there are various levels of intimacy and then there is sex and then there is rape.

now coming to the article the main points are:

1. its a woman's right - nobody is disputing it  - any man who does not respect that is not worth keeping as a husband - just divorce and move on (the domestic violence act is sufficient for this)

2. "In fact, it is because we are a country still terribly hobbled by ignorance and custom that it becomes even more important to provide legal protection for the woman. Usha, our domestic help, would come to work at least once a week with a black eye. When asked why she did not complain, she would say, ‘Husbands can hit their wives, ma. It’s the norm’. It’s the same ‘norm’ that allows the husbands of many Ushas to rape them, without protection, each time they come home drunk."  -  so drunk and violence - then sex - so its domestic violence again - same point 1 - divorce with existing laws.

3. "Marriage in India is, among other things, a sexual contract because it gives the man implied consent to sex in perpetuity. It reinforces the man’s “ownership” rights over the wife. This denies the woman any agency over her own body, its sexuality and its reproductive function. Refusing to criminalise marital rape is to accept that sexual coercion against a woman, so long as it is within a marriage, will be endorsed by both government and society. If women are to wrest control of their lives, they have to have the right to say no to their husbands without being socially penalised for it. The myth of the ‘wifely duty’ and the ‘conjugal right’ must end because marital sex, as all sex, must be with mutual consent and pleasure." - nobody is denying it - its her right - same point 1 - same answer

4. Societies such as India that condemn and penalise sex outside of marriage often force men into marital relationships only for free access to physical consummation, which puts women under incredible sexual threat. A few years ago, newspapers carried the story of a 26-year-old woman who returned from a Bangkok honeymoon with serious injuries after her husband forced violent sex on her. This is far more common than one would like to think, and I know of more than one woman who has endured similar sexual abuse in marriage with no legal recourse. - the author can only think of "more than one" case - i havent heard of a single case in my entire relations or friends circle - so other than sensationalising the article and generalising something which is not true, there is nothing she has to offer - also again the example given is violence - same point 1 - same legal recourse - now i am wondering of the hundreds of millions who have had honeymoons with sex without violence - does either partner not want to have sex in their honeymoons?

5. final paras - "To say that the institution of marriage will be threatened by such a law is to either underestimate the very real affections, bonds and negotiations that hold good marriages together despite deep disagreements and differences, or to accept that sexual abuse and coercion is so common in marriages that no man dares risk such a law.

When society makes theft or murder a punishable offence, it does so not because everyone is a potential thief or murderer but to protect everyone from the few thieves and murderers. Are these laws misused? Of course they are, all of them, and with sickening frequency. But nobody is asking for them to be thrown out, are they?" - this author is a real joke - no wife has in a fit of anger named her husband a thief or murderer (unless taking a cue from this they start doing so) BUT in a fit of anger they have misused the anti-dowry act and also the domestic violence act -these two acts have already done more damage than help in society - unleashing a marital rape act will only completely destroy the institution of marriage and society at large as without the institution of marriage it will be open season on relationships. this is a plain and simple debate of physical violence and on the first such instance the woman is free to walk out of the marriage/ relationship - period. maybe the debate should be on how the penalties/ sentences under the domestic violence act are to be increased so that no man will ever think of physically abusing a woman whether in or outside of marriage.

Marriage - is it all that its cracked out to be?

There is an article on why one does not need to get married here . It seems that the writer has seen only bad marriages and never a good one. lets analyze each and every one of his points..

 It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.

"If there is something Indian parents are more eager than getting their kids to clear IIT about, it is getting them married. The moment you enter your mid twenties, the whole world around you discovers a new found obsession to see you tying the knot. Why? Why is it that marriage has been made into the ultimate life goal? Here, we tell you why it’s perfectly fine if you never want to get married."
he makes a basic assumption that its a life goal - well its not - its just another life process and so his entire rant against marriage is to be seen through this "goal" lens rather than a as a process.

1. Marriage is just a label. If you want to be committed to someone, you don’t need a piece of paper telling you that. You can be as dedicated, committed and loving a partner as anyone else without getting married.
good to see that he is all for sex - so its only the physical to keep the relationship (or plural) going - so what happens when the "looks" wear out? - guy doesnt understand what he is writing - why cant you have the same dedicated, committed and loving in a marriage???

2. Contrary to what parents think, a marriage cannot guarantee a secure, lifelong relationship. What has to go wrong will go wrong. People who don’t want to stick around, won’t, either way.  And people who truly love you will stay by your side without any declaration. You don’t need to get married to be sure your partner is never going to leave you.
so who said you marry so that the other wont leave you? - quite obviously he does not know the spiritual and societal role of marriage - refer his first point - his thought process hasnt proceeded beyond the sex..

3. It’s strange how some people will spend the rest of their lives with people they don’t even love, suffering every day, just because their parents got them married. It’s funny how a life of compromise is what they see as a solution to a failed marriage. It’s much better to be in a relationship that you can break out of if things don’t go well than hanging on to the wrong person.
by this measure everybody would be in a relationship with everybody else at some point or the other because if life has taught you one thing its about glorious uncertainties and the need for a person to adjust (compromise) with whats served rather than fight and be consumed. nobody has lived life fighting it - they have only lived life by flowing  with it.

4. We weren’t born to get married. It’s not as necessary as the Indian society makes it to be. Life is still going to be as good, even if you’re unmarried. Marriage is just an institution and you can choose not believe in it, like religion. There’s nothing wrong with not conforming to the idea of marriage if you don’t believe in it. As simple as that.
so now its an Indian society thing - so another presstitute in the making if not one already. however the second part is the first sensible thing in this article so far - its your choice if you want to get married or not - thats simple..

5. Not all relationships pass the test of time. If break ups weren’t hard enough already, things get unmanageably rough if the two partners are married! Divorces are messy. Always. Whether or not the separation is out of mutual consent. When two people decide to end a long term relationship that they’ve invested their soul and heart into, getting into legal hassles is the last thing they want to be involved in. And don’t even get us started on the alimony laws in the country!
so this joker gets better like scotch - so in his non- married version - there will be no kids and no alimonies - looks like this joker like the presstitutes hasnt done his home work. the law is worse in case of non- married couple who turn up in court fighting over their kids/ money etc etc

6. Your twenties are the time when you finally get out of your shell and explore the many possibilities of life. It is perfectly normal to not want to get tied down by marriage. There is nothing more fulfilling than living life on your own terms and you shouldn’t exchange that for anything in the world!
part 2 of point 4 - no issues with that. though this point shows the selfishness of the writer - wonder how his relationships turn out when its all about your terms and not the other.. just wondering...

7. An average Indian lives for 70 years. He is still not an adult till the age of 18. And, gets married by the age of 25. All he gets is 7 years, 7 out of 70 years of his life, to find a woman he loves. Most people never find ‘the one’ because they get married before they can even try! There’s no acceptable age to fall in love. Why can’t we be dating till we actually find someone worth settling down with?
this aint a reason for not getting married - just an advocacy for love marriage - so now the author is also confused on what he is writing about.. 

8. Some people want a happily ‘married’ life, some have different priorities. It is perfectly okay to never want to have a wife back home, a house with kids. Some of us just want to be independent all our lives, living by ourselves, doing what we love, doing what we want.
point 4 repeated . just like point 6 showed up his selfishness - this one shows up his paranoia and takes us back to the opening remarks - seems to have only seen bad marriages.. pity this fellow..

9. We grow up seeing everyone getting married around us and assume it is a stage every man has to go through. But how many people who get married do so because they really want to? It just doesn’t make sense to rush into marrying just because everyone else is.
kindly make a list of at 10 people you know who "rushed" into marriage because "everyone else is" - this guy is pathetic..

10. In India, you don’t just marry your partner, you marry their whole family. And truth be told, families are the reason why a married couple is always fighting. If one pair of parents isn’t enough, you get another one that loves getting involved in everything you do. It’s fair to not want so much baggage in a relationship. A relationship is always happier till there aren’t more people involved other than the two partners. And sadly, that’s just not possible in marriages.
so now this selfish paranoic person is an expert on happiness..

11. There’s a lot that is terribly wrong with Indian marriages. The society won’t let you live in peace till you get married. Giving in looks like the solution, but it only makes things worse. Getting married is only the beginning. Once you’re married, a dozen more expectations will be set on you – to have children, to buy a bigger house, an even bigger car. The society will lay down all the rules for you on what is the purpose of a marriage, how an Indian couple behaves and what a successful marriage should mean. It’s really not worth it.
nothing is worth it if you live a life copying the joneses - happiness is a state of mind and sadly the author seems to be missing his..

Personally for me marriage has been a wonderful expression of life with all its glorious uncertainities in this adventure called life. Other than choosing to marry or not - for reasons which are personal, there are no persuasive arguments for or against marriage as this author has tried to make out and failed so miserably. 

Dharma, Karma, Responsibility and Rights

The recent drowning of a school child in a water tank in a school premises has resulted in the arrest of the school principal, class teacher and 3 other maintenance staff of the school.

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/delhi/Principal-4-others-of-Delhis-Ryan-International-school-arrested/articleshow/50854125.cms

Another incident (among many) show people who are drowned while out in a lake, beach etc or just standing on the rocks of a river bed taking photos being swept away.

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/bengaluru/2-high-school-students-drown-in-Dasarahallilake/articleshow/50408636.cms

http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/hyderabad-students-feared-drowned-himachal-pradesh-dam-water-release/1/365983.html

In the above cases nobody other than the people who died are responsible as these are accidents and as such what happened in the school was also an accident. Just as the grief of the parents who lost their child cannot be understood, they have to to understand that blaming others for an accident will not bring their child back. Yes, after such accidents the schools have to relook at their safety procedures and the government may make it mandatory for audit of school premises etc, But the knee jerk reaction of blaming the school authorities who were as clueless of the incident as the authorities whenever a person falls into a sewer and dies or a child falls into a borewell and dies or a two wheeler bumps on a pothole in the road and the pillion rider dies, the teachers and principal of the school are just as innocent or as guilty as these very authorities.

May be as they are deemed soft targets, it is easier to make an example of them But unlike the other authorities who dont even remember the number of people who die on a daily basis due to their indifference and corruption the school employees will carry this scar all their lives - That according to me is punishment enough.

the olympics a virus and you get another conspiracy..

With the olympics due in Brazil this summer the sudden flurry of media reports on the effects of a virus which is possibly as old as malaria (isolated for the first time in '47 in Uganda) and causes dengue, yellow fever, Japanese encephalitis, and West Nile viruses. The present form of the virus linking it to fetal abnormalities is enough to send alarm bells ringing worldwide and here is where the conspiracy theorists have a field day - people will go to the olympics and they will "Buy" the vaccination necessary - in fact it would be even better if the vaccine is "mandated" by the WHO for travel to Brazil. Considering this virus has been around for a long time - it is more a storm in a tea cup (Of course one should be sensible and not travel to places which are undergoing an outbreak no matter how common the virus) BUT the role of the companies engaging in Genetically Modified mosquitoes or GM crops to withstand the spraying of pesticides and insecticides should be investigated - otherwise the conspiracy theorists will have more converts by the day.

Sabarimala

Recently the Supreme court has accepted a PIL for allowing women in the mensurating age group into the Sabarimala temple. The easiest solution for the government to bypass this conundrum is to declare the sabarimala a club with "rights of admission reserved". With this the matter can be closed. At worst it can be termed as a "private place of public interest" which means that they can't be forced to admit anyone they do not wish to!!

Now coming to the more devious and serious matter at hand - the agenda of the person filing the PIL and the Judge who allowed it.

It is a known fact that for political reasons all hindu temples have been taken under government control leaving aside christian and muslim places of worship outside the control of the government. This was mainly done so that the monies of these places of worship can be used to furthur propagate their religion by conversions etc whereas the hindu temples monies would not be available for their use. The steady chipping away at all the customs and rituals of hindu temples in 70 years of vote bank politics has now reached this level that a judge thinks that he can interfere in the working of rituals and traditions. It was a really sad day when Sardar patel bowed down to Gandhi's choice of Nehru as India's PM when the congress party was overwhelmingly rooting for the Sardar. This is the reason that India needs to get rid of such parties and their politicians.

Politics, education and educated politics!!

Recently the Haryana Govt stirred up a hornets nest by notifying minimum education qualifications for the panchayat elections. This set the alarm bells ringing in the entire political sphere as many present elected politicans are known more for their "rap sheet" rather than their "mark sheet".

Now coming to the said notification, personally I believe that "formal" education should not be a bar for entering politics, as many people (and this will be always in perpetuity in a country the size of India) are educated in the "university of life" and this makes them more in touch with the problems. trials and tribulations of the man on the street which is required when policy is debated and passed in the parliament.

Also the formal education doesnt guarantee knowledge - just look at the number of people who press both "UP" and "DOWN" buttons in elevators !! Also professionally educated engineers, doctors, CA's etc etc were caught napping in the recent Facebook sponsored petition to TRAI where they thought they were protecting net neutrality when actually it was the opposite - all the 150+ people on the authors friend list who signed, when told of the "real" effect of their vote - felt cheated and sent separate emails to TRAI to ignore their vote in favour of freebasics which was obtained by FB in a devious manner!!

Now for some analytical data - Angola talks of "solid education background, Azerbaijan talks of university degree, Turkey talks about higher education. No other country talks about education as a criteria for standing for elections of a public office. (Author note - all 196 countries constitutions have not been read - readers are encouraged to list more countries with minimum education qualifications for entering politics)

List of countries with no reference to minimum education qualification:

1 Afghanistan
2 Albania
3 Algeria
4 Argentina
5 Armenia
6       Australia
7 Austria
8 Bangladesh
9 Belarus
10 Brazil
11 Colombia
12 France
13 Germany
14 India
15 Mexico
16 Philippines
17      Russia
18      Srilanka
19 United Kingdom
20      United States of America

There are many pro's and cons for this subject but the clinching argument is, if education is superior then why should an educated person be scared of the uneducated lot, who would logically have no traction with the voters. Ergo the author feels that the minimum education criteria will restrict the talent pool and should not be imposed in politics. As politics is a popular vote (competition of electorate) unlike a "job" which by its very nature has to be based on the competition of education, knowledge or such other criteria which will allow common marking and hence comparision to get the best of the lot appointed! So the biggest argument for education in politics does not stand as we will end up comparing apples and oranges.

Traffic and water- both need to flow - ask delhi and chennai

The recent odd even formula of the Delhi government to reduce pollution is nothing more than a direct admission that physics trumps human behaviour. As the roads in delhi remain the same there is no way that you can place more and more cars on them. This basic concept of physics that 2 objects cannot occupy the same space is the reason we have traffic jams and the resultant pollution. Now the logical extension of this is to formalise a total limit across the country (at a simplistic level) based on a vehicles per km concept. This way one can auction the rights to car ownership in each area and thus generate more revenues and use that to run buses for free!!

of course the obvious solution will never be followed as that forces accountability on the government to account for the extra revenue from these auctions to provide better public transport, they would rather play with some odd-even rule which within a decade will end up in a congestion tax and other silly things which have huge administration costs attached to it rather than the simple auction method with limited admin costs.

Of course this way only the rich can afford cars BUT aint that the system in singapore where the car registration fees is so prohibitive that only the rich can afford cars? (no point envying such countries when you refuse to follow commonsensical solutions to problems)

Now coming to the odd-even rule. It has reduced pollution from cars more than estimated simply because 1) 50% less cars (taken into account) , 2)lesser jams (taken into account) BUT they didnt take into account NO jams which means if earlier 100 cars spent 40mins on the road - now only 50 cars spend less than 5 mins on the same stretch of the road. this means that car pollution time has been cut from 100*40 = 4000 car minutes to 50*5=250 car minutes ie a 93.75% reduction in car pollution. Now when you input this number into IIT, kanpur report that cars produce less than 3% of the pollution in delhi, we can say that nearly 100% of this 3% has been eliminated by this odd-even rule.

But then i hope the government wakes up to the fact that it is always better to come up with a lasting solution(cars per km )  rather than patch work like odd-even which will require a congestion tax in the near future and better/ cheaper/ safer public transport.

of course nothing would be better than to fast forward the adoption of greener tech in cars - refer earlier blog on this here at http://forsec.blogspot.in/2015/04/ngt-law-and-acche-din-for-conspiracy.html