Thursday, February 7, 2013

Ratings of Nation Building and Bankrupticies

In a democracy the rating (election) results in govt formation!! :-)

All nations are bankrupt today with the notable exception of a "handful". What prompted this article was the joke that the US government has announced with its case against S&P.

Other than political clout nothing can make this case stick - the fact that it is even admitted by the court means that the heavy hand of politics is at work. If there is an indictment against S&P - the repercussions will be unimaginable. The DUH moment in this is - Rating agencies cant be paid for by the issuers - it has to be paid for by the investors. The same argument that I have been having for appointment of auditors for the past 2 decades!! The same argument for any certification/ verification - the fees has to be paid by the person who relies on the certification not the person who is selling based on the certification - DUH!!

The US went bankrupt in 1929. India went bankrupt in 2008. Since then they have only been printing money and whatever growth has happened post 1929 is there is inspite of the government - that growth went bankrupt in 2007!!

The growth in India is now the growth of the US post 1929 - the only difference is that earlier cycles tend to get compressed in the current world of instant noodles and ADHD - so you can expect the next Indian bankruptcy in 25years or less!!

The congress almost bankrupted the nation back in 1990 - they almost did it again in 1999 which the BJP picked up and cleaned up BUT the people didint have the patience to see the benefits of the hard work put in nation building - they changed the govt and this time around the congress was successful third time around in bankrupting the nation!!

So in all this where is the nation building? That is an art that the americans have mastered by brute force - my way or the highway - one just has to look at the amount of armed conflict zones the US has created or been actively engaged in since WWII. It is this which keeps the dollar in demand - that the supremacy of the dollar will be challenged by anybody is unthinkable (look at Iran's attempt to sell crude in currencies other than dollar - there is an illegal US imposed sanction they are suffering under now!!) and that too by a two bit rating agency?? HOW DARE THEY.

The chinese started late in this game BUT they have mastered it faster than the americans and are now the bully of the eastern world. If one looks at how crime syndicates work - then the US is the godfather and the Chinese are the ones to challenge the godfather. NOW that is something that is keeping the americans from sleeping at night and also those who have stockpiled the dollar to lend protection to their local export based economies. Ironically china can use its stockpile of american dollars in its war against the americans.

So is there a thing as nation building practiced anywhere in the world? Other than the chinese and the above mentioned "handful of nations not bankrupt" I dont think there is nation building happening anywhere!! And when that does not happen bankruptcies happen by the bakers dozen!!