Something is not Kosher here

Is Preet Bharara an idiot or is there something not yet in the public domain regarding the charges against Khobragade?

The so called law that Preet is trying to uphold is followed more in its breach - minimum wages to an indian maid in an indian diplomats house - and that too an indian maid on an indian diplomatic passport.

It is a well established principle of law that standard of living is crucial in fixing the quantum of financial punishment. For eg. the alimony that tiger woods pays is way more than the alimony that an average jobless joe in the US pays.

By that very standard sangeetha was on velvet with limited work and a salary of 30k sent to her family in India. I am sure there will be millions of people (even people with degrees) willing to work for that pay.

So unless there is something other than what is already there in the public domain I fail to see how Preet hopes to get a conviction.

The other Questions on which the GOI/ Khobragade can file a harassment suit/ illegal detention / defamation suit are:

1. There was a missing person report against Sangeetha - inspite of that the NYC police did not inform that they were in touch with the maid
2. there was a criminal case against the husband - in spite of that the US gave him a Visa - interesting to see what he filled up in his application form in the column for "any criminal case..."
3. The very point that the maids family was "evacuated" for atrocities done on them by the Indian state smacks of a conspiracy as the interview of the diplomats father is there for all to see - he kept calling the DCP to follow up against the maids husband and to impound his passport - who did nothing - when a police officer in charge of the case in not even following up - where is the question of "atrocities" against the maids family.

There are just too many question and also precedent wherein the US state dept had allowed russian diplomats to leave inspite of committing fraud, bullldozed Pakistan to accord diplomatic immunity to a private American contractor etc etc - WHY this doggedness to continue to carry on a losing cause? Is the Ego of an individual Idiot who has been HAD by a sob story of a maid far greater in the US establishment than normalising relations with the worlds largest democracy.

Something is just not Kosher here.

Big Brother

Just as "The Help" opened up the way for better treatment at the workplace the unfortunate episode of the Indian consul being arrested is so unfortunate.

The servant was so happy to go and work in the US wherein she was getting to send a monthly paycheck to her family back home a princely sum of 30k per month. (starting salary for a bureaucrat in India!!)

The point one does not understand here is that was there abuse of the maid ?
was a complaint made by the maid with the US authorities that she was being exploited? - UPDATE (ostensibly she was working with the Manhattan US attorney Barara claiming exploitation - as of the 10th the absconding maids entire family had reached the US)

This (minimum wages to maids) was a rule that was followed more in the breach (with apologies to the rt.hon. MP - hacker) and as such the US should have just sent a simple communication to the Indian consulate that they will be implementing the letter of the law and all consulates to clean home as it may be. This was not followed.

So it comes back to WHY the US took this very extreme step?

as per my FB friend the real genesis of this extreme step was a retaliation to the visa denial for a gay spouse by the MEA (gays are not spouse and it is still a criminal act here in india as per indian laws). in this case the US protested and India (as usual) went out of its way in not only issuing the visa BUT also transferred the concerned officer for following the rule!!

The US thought that India would continue to look the other way if they messed around with one of their consular members. They just didnt take into calculation the pressure that a weakened govt was already under locally and was looking to redeem itself in the eyes of its citizens and with the BJP talking tough with reciprocity being the hallmark of smart and equal diplomacy, the govt went into overdrive.

However if one were to look at what this useless/ spineless govt has done so far is ONLY bring to an end the unilateral priverlages given by india. They are yet to act in a manner which will send a clear message. some of these messages are;

1. arrest all gay couples irrespective of immunity or otherwise
2. impose property tax on the US embassy a la commercial rates as they run many commercial establishments in its premises
3. arrest all the spouses of officers who are working on the side in indian companies

If this still doesnt get an apology and in return the US are to retaliate furthur - i am sure the govt can match them on a reciprocal basis. Of course all the above is just to get the US to come to its senses and withdraw all charges against Devyani and also to issue an unconditional apology.

Now coming to the person in the centre of the storm - Ms Khobragade. She is a career diplomat, daughter of a promotee IAS officer (who was central to the adarsh housing scam) and such not an ideal choice for posting in a country like US - But it is exactly her credentials as a dalit champion, father close to the Congress etc that got her the plum coveted posting in the US. As the cycle of karma turned in her case the plump posting had a more than unintended closure. Her connections in government are more evident from the fact that she has managed to get posted to the UN instead of just being happy to get back home to india.

Personally the officer is not the ideal officer in my opinion BUT the issue here is of India's sovereignty and honour and its standing in the comity of nations and as such that is not something that can be compromised or reduced in any way.

Why Delhi needs a govt. and not prez rule

After the bloodless revolution in the Delhi elections by the common man it is clear that 2014 will be an interesting tussle between the entrenched politics and the new age politics as provided by brand "aam admi'.

If no govt is formed in Delhi then the people of this country will be robbed of an opportunity to judge the performance of the AAP. In my opinion, post these assembly results it is clear that there is a clear anti-congress wave sweeping the nation. Hence the projected seats for Lok sabha 2014 are as follows:

OPTION 1:
If there is no govt formation in Delhi the following may be the results in elections 2014
NDA - 220+
UPA - 140+
AAP - 40+
Third front - 134-

OPTION 2:
In the case of a formation of a govt in Delhi the following may well be the result
NDA - 255+
AAP - 80+
UPA - 80-
third front - 119-

many small fringe upa members will align with the BJP or prefer to be independent - hence the third front will swelled by these parties deserting the UPA.

Now the scenario will be changed dramatically if the following were to happen:

1. Assuming option 2 - AAP brings down the BJP govt in delhi - the BJP will go to the elections saying  - "see what a fractuous mandate does" - in this case the NDA will get 260+ and the UPA reverts back to 140+ and the AAP falls to 15+

2. AAP gives support to the Delhi govt based on issues and hence is there as the conscience of the common man - the govt functions in a healthy manner - the above option 2 may well be surpassed by both the BJP and the AAP

3. no govt is formed then option 1 above will come about and the country can ill afford a minority govt or horse trading now as that will totally vitiate the atmosphere.

So it boils down to the simple fact that the AAP goes to the BJP and tells them to form the Delhi govt promising them a hard time on all issues in the assembly BUT in a transparent manner in keeping with their raison d'etre and we could indeed be celebrating another revolution after the independence movement - the revolution of freedom from corruption.

NOTE For stock market participants:
in the immediate term, company results will rein in the exuberance and the timeline of tapering by the US Fed will also pull down the markets after todays euphoria.

In case of option 1 in case Modi does become the PM, we may look at a nifty index of 8000 by the end of their term.
However in case of option 2 , we can easily look at a nifty index in excess of 10000 by the end of their term with a return of the same dipensation coming back to power being priced in.

In the case neither of the above happens and by a miracle the third front or the congress form the government all bets are off and we may easily look at an index which will be well and truly buried.

Right to Reject - What the SC and the EC doesnt want you to know

The Right to Reject is akin to a toothless tiger. There are many who think it is a great thing BUT in reality the net effect of you pushing the "none of the above" button has the same effect as an invalid vote. The votes the none of the above button garners is also not to be counted! Hence the person who gets the majority of the votes will still win!!

The basic point of the democratic process is a positive vote. So unless and until the "none of the above" votes are counted and if it garners more than the second placed person in that contest then there has to be a reelection wherein if the previous winner again gets the maximum votes then he is to be elected. Unless this "positive" process is incorporated in the election process this recent judgment by the SC  is nothing more than a smoke screen.

My suspicion is that this was timed to coincide with the "drama" of Rahul G "trashing" his own governments ordinance on allowing convicted politicians to vote. Unfortunately the reaction that the spin doctors in the Congress got from the public and the press was not what they expected and as such the story that was to have been spun around the SC verdict never happened.

I invite constitutional experts to comment on whether the Election commission has the powers to take the SC judgment to its logical conclusion ie give teeth to the judgment by making the "none of the above" a potent tool in the hands of the population and thereby heralding a new era in politics of the nation.

The point to ponder is when many people dont vote when their vote counts will they even bother with the "none of the above" option when it doesnt count at all?

Incompetence or just chidu's stooge?

The government of India published the composite development index of states a couple of days back and this is a very crucial piece of economic projection of development that cannot be allowed to be manipulated as it serves the following very important functions:

1. politically it can categorise a state as developed/ under developed (some politicians love to be called under developed (Bihar/ UP etc) as they get a higher share of central govt funds - while other politicians have the pride to be called developed (gujarat, tamilnadu etc) )

2. economically the index will, based on the above classification, allocate the central resources - namely the less developed states will get more funds and more developed states less funds.

the entire report can be accessed here http://finmin.nic.in/reports/Report_CompDevState.pdf

the interesting dissent note of Dr. Shaibal Gupta is most illuminating and revealing and perhaps shows up the true colours of Dr Rajan? Is he in the end just a stooge of the Congress and has no pride in the various degrees he has accumulated in an otherwise illustrious career?

the report has used the following 10 basic variables
1) Monthly per capita consumption expenditure
2) education
3) health
4) household amenities
5) poverty rate
6) Female literacy
7) percent of SC/St in population
8) Urbanisation
9) Financial Inclusion
10) connectivity

As a layman the measure of development should be income and not expenditure and therein lies the most explosive part of the report.

A. The Congress govt has in its 58+ years of misrule kept the population of the country ignorant (education is still in vernacular when we all know the power of an english medium in upgrading ones economic and social status - ask anybody in the private sector, which job pays more? - knowing english or not knowing it!!)
B. The Congress has kept the people dependent on the govt by so called subsidies - in exchange for votes - they never empowered the people to earn their own bread. (heard the adage - do charity and feed the guy for a day BUT teach him to fish and he will forever feed himself)

point B mentioned above is the reason why the first variable of the report is consumption based and not income based - BECAUSE that is what the congress government can lay claim to after 58 years of misrule - we have 90% of the population living on charity, they have no place to go and no means of upgrading themselves socially/ economically or otherwise.

for a moment when Dr Rajan raised repo rates I thought we had an ideal successor  for Dr Y V Reddy to bring pride back to the Institution of the Central Bank BUT this report shows him as either incompetent or just a political lackey of the Congress.

One is willing to give him the benefit of doubt that this report was written when he was in the economic advisory team of the Congress and as such you dont have the option of doing things which are not allowed in the political spiel of things of the ruling dispensation BUT now that he is the RBI governor he can accept the report is flawed set things right.

The ball is truly and rightly in your court Dr Rajan.

the NDA still doesnt get IT (elected in 2014)

the NDA claims they created more jobs than the UPA. still the NDA lost the previous elections. When will the NDA understand that the people dont want jobs - they just want money in their accounts WITHOUT work!!

the "aam admi party" has got IT correctly - hence they are going around claiming that they will reduce electricity tariffs, water bills etc etc. the people who dont want to work will vote them in and rob the country of a stable govt in the 2014 elections as a lot of these new age "anti corruption" parties are mushrooming across the length and breadth of the country which promise the people a magical wand of price reduction and freedom from corruption.

for this experiment itself it would be interesting to see the "aam admi party" win in delhi - the BJP chances of forming a stable govt in 2014 be damned !!

Your turn Mr President

After Mr Rajan declared his independence from the shackles of the Finance ministry by upholding the Independence of the Institution he now heads viz. the RBI, it is now the turn of the president to break free from the partisan shackles he is viewed with being a former congressman by not signing the Ordinance being formulated by the UPA on allowing convicted people to stand for elections.

This single act of kindness towards the polity will save the institution of the president which had fallen in disrepute and slander with the previous occupant (another congress stooge).

So Mr President it does not matter what good you have done all these years that you were rewarded by the congress with the post of the Presidency BUT this single act of signing or not signing the Ordinance is what you will be remembered for.

Miracles, Inflation and the Aam Admi (common man)

Everywhere today we see discussions on price rise. People are most dissatisfied with price rise and why not after all it reduces your discretionary spend!!

And it is this pain of less to spend in discretion that make people take to the streets.

First let us understand the economics of a price rise. As there are finite resources and as we do not live in a 100% recycle system as the years go by resources will be harder to find. Add to this the problem of rising populations with rising aspirations. We then have a timebomb of inflation in our hands.

Inflation is to be split up into two parts - that which is the direct result of money printing (yeah this is a result of whenever the Aam Admi goes on a strike for higher wages) AND that which is the result of finite resources.

One doesnt need to be a rocket scientist to see that if the Aam admi grew a brain he would be asking for wage reductions rather than wage hikes so that prices of goods come DOWN. On the other hand a reasonable percentage of wage hike to compensate for the REAL inflation due to dwindling resources will keep the balance going.

Now life aint as simple as explained above. (the amount of books on economic theory on the merits and demerits of deflation vis a vis inflation will make a two lane highway between the earth and the moon). What we have in reality is a mix of population growth, fiscal deficits, rising aspirations, imbalance in distribution of income, corruption, vote bank politics etc etc and at the end of which you have the nation still growing!!

IF that aint a daily miracle I dont know what is!! :-)

Want to meet a corrupt IAS officer?

Just look out for the officer who will replace Ms. Durga Nagpal in Gautam Budh Nagar, UP and if he does not continue where she left off in her official duties you would have seen one!!

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/IAS-Durga-Shakti-Nagpal-who-took-on-sand-mafia-suspended/articleshow/21440059.cms

Match Fixing - an analysis

Naxals, Rapes and the routine murder of democracy by the elected - with such pressing issues at hand to fire fight - our police is busy tapping phones of cricketers for stopping betting!

Now this raises the abvious Question - why is the police so INTERESTED in betting? The answer is closer home than most would like to acknowledge or understand. It is the politician who manages the betting syndicate - so when there is a new claimant aka the players themselves - the politicians whistles for his faithful dogs who dutifully do as per his masters betting er i mean bidding!! They leave all other investigations of rape, murder etc and focus on "Betting" - the national pastimes of the common man in india - much more important than terrorism, nirbhaya etc etc. Betting is illegal because the law as it stands today makes it so - if it were not then it would be legal - the only thing illegal even then would be "match fixing" or "spot fixing".

India was an unintended beneficiary of one of the earliest match fixing in cricket - the 1983 world cup - just as much inspired as kapil's devils were - the bookies who rigged the tournament so that their "dark horse" would win were just as incentivised!! The picture of a west Indian fan lying face down on the ground after the Indian win was just as much as a give away as the shouldering of the bat by Greenidge to Sandhu!!

Sadly the press got it all wrong when they blamed Kapil of match fixing - when in fact it was the west Indian team in cahoots with the bookies which caused an Indian win!!

The more recent World cup when India beat Pakistan is a lesson in match fixing. The way the Pakistan bowlers were making the ball talk while their fielders played with butter in the hands was all to obvious and telling. This time it was so fixed so that the unofficial God of cricket can be accommodated with the only missing trophy in his otherwise spilling cupboard of mementos!!

The legality of the bet placed by yudhishtira with draupadi as the asset and the collateral damage the same caused is all to well documented. What this investigation will reveal will of course be "fixed" by the political masters that be unless of course a rouge court comes up with some questions which will lead to a more complete investigation rather than a pre ordered one as currently undertaken!

The rule for all investigators - you dont fix to win - you fix to lose - ask any shady promoter of a boxing match!!

Ratings of Nation Building and Bankrupticies

In a democracy the rating (election) results in govt formation!! :-)

All nations are bankrupt today with the notable exception of a "handful". What prompted this article was the joke that the US government has announced with its case against S&P.

Other than political clout nothing can make this case stick - the fact that it is even admitted by the court means that the heavy hand of politics is at work. If there is an indictment against S&P - the repercussions will be unimaginable. The DUH moment in this is - Rating agencies cant be paid for by the issuers - it has to be paid for by the investors. The same argument that I have been having for appointment of auditors for the past 2 decades!! The same argument for any certification/ verification - the fees has to be paid by the person who relies on the certification not the person who is selling based on the certification - DUH!!

The US went bankrupt in 1929. India went bankrupt in 2008. Since then they have only been printing money and whatever growth has happened post 1929 is there is inspite of the government - that growth went bankrupt in 2007!!

The growth in India is now the growth of the US post 1929 - the only difference is that earlier cycles tend to get compressed in the current world of instant noodles and ADHD - so you can expect the next Indian bankruptcy in 25years or less!!

The congress almost bankrupted the nation back in 1990 - they almost did it again in 1999 which the BJP picked up and cleaned up BUT the people didint have the patience to see the benefits of the hard work put in nation building - they changed the govt and this time around the congress was successful third time around in bankrupting the nation!!

So in all this where is the nation building? That is an art that the americans have mastered by brute force - my way or the highway - one just has to look at the amount of armed conflict zones the US has created or been actively engaged in since WWII. It is this which keeps the dollar in demand - that the supremacy of the dollar will be challenged by anybody is unthinkable (look at Iran's attempt to sell crude in currencies other than dollar - there is an illegal US imposed sanction they are suffering under now!!) and that too by a two bit rating agency?? HOW DARE THEY.

The chinese started late in this game BUT they have mastered it faster than the americans and are now the bully of the eastern world. If one looks at how crime syndicates work - then the US is the godfather and the Chinese are the ones to challenge the godfather. NOW that is something that is keeping the americans from sleeping at night and also those who have stockpiled the dollar to lend protection to their local export based economies. Ironically china can use its stockpile of american dollars in its war against the americans.

So is there a thing as nation building practiced anywhere in the world? Other than the chinese and the above mentioned "handful of nations not bankrupt" I dont think there is nation building happening anywhere!! And when that does not happen bankruptcies happen by the bakers dozen!!

Nirbhaya - the aftermath

Ever since the nation struggling from price rise and corruption adopted girl and prayed for her life - the unanimous cries for death for the perpetrators of the heinous crime has been getting louder. For this case as it is the most heinous of heinous - hang them till they die.

But arent we being a bit trigger happy when saying that all rape should be met with the same end - death by hanging for the guilty?

More punishments over and above what already exists?
Are we proposing these as deterrents?
So am I to presume that the existing provisions (vast and very stringent) are not working? - these new provisions are going to work?

The issue as usual has been masterly sidetracked by  the media and completely missed by those who represent "public opinion on TV".

If anybody heard the boys version of what happened - the key issues are:
1. No public came forward to help!! - That's because we have cases that go on for 100 yrs+ and nobody has the time to be a witness for that long - come on we all have a life - so the first issue is that the witness is to be treated like royalty, he will be taken at govt expense to the court, ONCE.  where he will sign an affidavit in the presence of the magistrate and leave. In the course of the hearing if he is to be cross examined - the court at its expense will provide video conferencing (skype is free) and he can be crossed on his affidavit - nothing more. (we also have cases where the idiot judges have held witnesses in contempt of court for not being present for the 100th + hearing!!)

2. 2nd issue was that of the jurisdiction fight between the 3 PCR's who responded to the 100 call - the jurisdiction is always the place of the victim in such cases and where the victim comes to the station that police station!!

3. No cop as well as anybody in the hospital gave any clothes to the boy and girl who were naked. SHAME. This is the criminal act - where is the punishment recommendation to justice verma for this?

4. The FIR was lodged after the case was taken up by the media and the girl was adopted by an anguished nation. where's the punishment for this - existing or proposed?
If FIR's are lodged online and the investigation has to be completed within say 72 hrs - THEN the rest of the issues will sort itself out.

The criminals do what they do as the public is apathetic to the cause of justice due to reason 1 above and also the harassment at the hands of the police who take money from the guilty party and harass the complainant and his witnesses.(eg ruchika gehrothra case etc).

 Trust me - we dont need more laws - existing ones if they are made humane are more than enough - the public will support it and that is the biggest deterrent to a criminal NOT the current demand for tougher punishments.

FCCB scam

Picture this:

Company A does a Zero coupon FCCB - INR/$ = 40

Amount raised = $100Mn

Fee allowed = 6%

Tenure - 4 yrs

Conversion price is set at 300/-

CMP - 180/-

Gain for the $ lender - he gets an upfront interest of 6% which translates into an annualised yield of 1.56% over 4 years which is 156 basis points more than any competing product in the $ world of Fixed income!!

Result : People start buying the share as there is confidence shown in the company by FII's

Reality : Shares held by the management is sold continuously ERGO the price just doesnt rise BUT falls continuously.

Company A then says that it is not able to repay its FCCB and the price crashes all the way to 10-15/- a share. It is here that the same people who sold the shares at 180 come and buy back the shares.

Suddenly on the appointed time for redemption the said FCCB's are miraculously redeemed and the share makes a stratospheric rise back to levels of 200+. 

Considering the total loss to the company is the forex loss of say INR15/$ ie 150Cr, all they have to do for  the above is to net a profit for them from the price manipulation on the average traded volume of shares to be  in excess of 150Cr. For a company with market cap in excess of 2000Cr this is but a 7% of its total shares outstanding for the price manipulation of 90%. In reality more than 35-40% of the shares are "spread" on gullible investors.

The break even for this works at even higher levels of 20% of shares outstanding.(lower the breakeven - higher the payout as managements with lower shareholding can also engage in this)

Of course where the intent is not to have a business going forward then with all the shares being "spread" the management can one fine day file for a CDR and make a comeback if the sucker bankers give them a break OR just file for bankruptcy and walk away to start the next scam all over again.

The list of shares that are caught in the FCCB mess makes interesting reading. The epitaph on the scheme can be only written when the last of the o/s FCCB's are closed successfully or otherwise. Watch out for those which show a miraculous repayment not supported by any operating flows. In other words the FCCB money was never deployed for what it was meant to do BUT the same was diverted to subsidiaries worldwide to make these illegal trades on the company's share where the real money making lies for the promoters.

Once this is done successfully the next time would be only easier!!

How to nail these cases?

1. Trace all those who bought the shares in 2 years prior to the FCCB announcement

2. Trace all those who sold this company's shares since the time of the FCCB became public knowledge

3. Find the quid pro quo between these seemingly unrealted parties and the management

4. Trace all those who are currently buying the shares prior to the miraculous repayment of the FCCB

5. Find the quid pro quo between these seemingly unrealted parties and the management

Caveat:

There is of course the very simple reality of coincidence making its presence felt as each of the above event is a buy low sell high event - followed by any self respecting investor - the only difference is that the size of the bets in relation to their remaining genre of investing is the give away.