Politics of climate, US growth is in coal...

Struggling with jetlag, i had the honour of watching a live telecast of Trump giving a speech from the white house where he basically said that the US was unilaterally withdrawing from an agreement where another 197 countries are parties !!

the main reasons stated are as follows:
1. US was unfairly targetted and that CHINA and INDIA were benefitting!! - well that was the thrust of the agreement in the first place -  that developing nations will be given some slack time to allow them to use that time to get into the developed bracket in the global sweepstakes!!
2. By getting out he can open coal mines and other manufacturing industries like steel, cement etc. which have a potential of 6.55Mn jobs and adding 3T$ GDP to the US economy. Methinks Trump just single handedly  taken the US from developed status to underdeveloped status. He thinks US will be great again with industries where the median wage is less than 30kUSD? Just imagine these 6.5Mn people plus families numbering over 30million people who cant afford medical insurance (O-care would be gone by then) with pollution related diseases in the next decade - thats a hole in the Balance sheet of the US that is being set up today. His fear was apparant in his voice when he mentioned that the US had over 20T$ of debt - and therein lies a tale - are we looking at a US default on its paper - considering Trump this is a distinct possibility!!

Now for some Data:
Cumulative US emissions are estimated at 25% of global emissions, EU (28nations) is 23%, China at 11% and India at 2%. Its a no brainer that the more developed you are , the more your share of global pollution.

So it was a no brainer that the paris climate deal was made on the central pillar of allowing the low emitters to up their emission to allow their populations the same chance to develop and also the transfer of technologies from the developed nations to the underdeveloped so that this process of development can be expedited.

the long and short of the US leaving the climate deal can be used by the remaining 197 countries to come together to levy a carbon tax on all US exports and that would truly set the circle one full round of karma.

Demonestisation - endgame redux

In my first blog on demonetisation ( http://forsec.blogspot.in/2016/11/you-hustle-you-deal-you-steal-from-us.html ) i had said we have to wait for the dec'16 and mar'17 tax numbers to arrive at the conclusion as to whether the parallel economy is finally moving mainstream. this chart shows that at an average growth of 13.5% for the two months of nov-dec, it ties in with my band of 4.6% to 17.6% .

A lot needs to be done and already the banks have shown their true colours by imposing an additional 1% transaction fee on debit/credit cards. Refer  my earlier blog on this ( http://forsec.blogspot.in/2016/11/fight-good-fight-post-demonetisation.html) where i had said that banking fees is one area that needs to be regulated - these should be pass through and not a profit centre for banks - its that simple and i am sure easily implemented by a RBI notification. govt departments can set the tone by making all their digital transactions free for the customers, which still hasnt happened! (update - the govt has started to make their transactions cost neutral)

March'17 tax figures will tell us how far demonetisation has resulted in reducing the parallel economy and also company results will tell us how much they have been impacted. A higher Rabi sowing of 6% has already shown that more of the formal economy has been used this time around to finance agriculture, whether this results really in a higher final production when procurement happens, we will know at the time of harvest.

At the beginning of the demonetisation move i had warned that this was the endgame for the informal economy, as the government will follow it up with more measures to go after those who are happy with an "informal setup". The recent announcement to use CA's to review the banking data to identify people who are potential tax dodgers is but one of many such measures that the government will be employing to end the informal economy, sooner rather than later. (update - the budget for 2017 has taken many measures to disincentive cash - lets see how this plays out in the fullness of time)

a final reminder from the evergreen epic..
"Being a journalist, Hacker had no particular talent for reporting facts" - the press reporting has to be taken with a pinch of salt as it is clear now that a part of them are pro-govt and a part of them against the govt.
"He can't seem to grasp that I don't want the truth, I want something I can tell Parliament.." - a govt pushed to the wall may just select obfuscation rather than the truth and that would be a bigger calamity than the various scams of the previous govt.
"Perhaps the government thinks that a tax is the best form of defence." - the introduction of GST may be the loophole for the govt as an excuse in the event of a sharp decline in growth and in the event there is no fall in growth - trumpet the success of both demonetisation and GST.

Komalavalli may now rest in peace

With her passing the real J Jayalalitha can now stand up
Now that she is free from the bonds that she allowed to bind her
Now that she is one of the beyond, she can rest
Now that she is the most loved and derided person in TN politics
Her legacy in a strongly patriarchal society is something future women in politics can look up to for strength
Rest in peace for you have earned it.

3 full terms as CM and at the beginning of the fourth she has no equal in TN politics. In charisma only her mentor MGR was greater and he even won an election lying in an hospital in the US!!

Her 14+years as CM is only surpassed by M Karunanidhi with his 19years which at the end of her current term would have been eclipsed!

Her very heartfelt interview with simi garewal can be seen here
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DzqLo_1SPZg  (part 1)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cf2bU9xD-3E  (part 2)

her wiki is here at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jayalalithaa

The interview says it all. Contrast this interview with the one with Karan thapar where she had walk out and you will get a glimpse as to the person she was.

May her much maligned and tortured soul rest for she has earned it.